Adaptive Imperative

Date: 5 Oct 2010

Venue: NUS Bukit Timah Campus

Speaker: Jeff Chua, Boston Consulting Group

I have attended a talk recently about developing business strategies in turbulent times when it is difficult to see trends beyond two or three years. The speaker mentioned the following observations:

The context of strategy has changed since changes happen frequently.

1. Market leadership does not necessarily imply the same extent in profitability.
2. It is harder to define industry boundaries.
3. It is harder to predict the future.
4. Market position is unstable. Those on top do not stay on top for very long.

Example of a Market Leader losing out to latecomer:

Blockbuster vs Netflix

Blockbuster was a market leader in video rental. But on 23 Sep 2010, it filed for Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code or protection against creditors.

Netflix is also in the video rental business and started in 1997. It deployed no strategy other than encouraging compulsive dissent and experiments. They tried sending out DVDs on envelopes, posting them and pricing them on a flat fee for as many DVDs customers care to watch. Then they continued to stream videos across different channels. By 2007, they passed the billionth DVD delivered.

This, the speaker claimed is evidence of increased unpredictability and turbulence.

Businesses would need to have:

- Responsiveness (agility)

- Resilience (robustness)

- Readiness (anticipation)

- Recursion (experimentation)

Example of two market leaders deploying very different strategies:

Google – using open systems

Apple – using closed proprietary systems.

The speaker continue to suggest that businesses should adapt using their:

1. Signal Advantage
2. System Advantage
3. People Advantage
4. Simulation Advantage
5. Social Advantage.

My opinion:

I think the speaker had focused too much on the form and not enough on the essence of the apparent ‘changes’.

The underlying common denominator of the current observations is merely the advent of technology and its easy and cheap availability. For instance:

- Netflix triumph over Blockbuster because of the former’s clever use of technologies.

- Large companies no longer make the proportional scale of profits as they used to because clever technologies are no longer just affordable by big companies, but they are affordable to small ones too. It is now possible even to become a one-man multi-national company.

So things aren’t that unpredictable or turbulent if we focus on the common denominator of ‘technology’.

Also, while Google appears to be ‘open’ and Apple being ‘closed’ using propriety systems, the commonality is that both makes money through their own propriety ‘orifice’. Google’s orifice is their search engine, while Apple’s is iTunes. And we have another major orifice called Microsoft Windows. Businesses love orifices. So in this respect, they are the same. So there isn’t the unpredictability or turbulence.

In summary, observations may appear different in form, but in essence there are usually common causes. The trick is look beyond the raw data to derive meaningful meta-information. The luminary Buckminster Fuller (Bucky) believed that the universe is one system obeying a set of generalized principles, and that in the early days when equipment are limited in ability and accuracy, different phenomena appeared to behaved differently. That resulted in the formation of different disciplines. So some scientific observations became ‘physics’, some became ‘chemistry’, some became ‘biology’,…etc, but in truth, they all belong to one system in the universe.

By those measures, it doesn't matter if Apple is a computer company, a mobile phone company or a lifestyle company. The fact that businesses have be categorized wrongly as stoke pipe industries with clear boundaries, doesn't mean that they need to continue to be so. A fresh look at them as eco-systems in one universe with their outreach enabled by technology would be closer to the reality.

Once the causes are identified it’ll be easier to help companies to cope up. So now you cure the causes, not the symptom. That means a simpler remedy, but usually that means you cannot sell expensive ‘medicine’ and make a lot of money. Bucky said, “You either make sense or make money, they are both mutually exclusive.” To date, I am still pondering over this question, "Can we make both money and sense?"

The Futurists 6 - Accelerating Change

The Futurist Group is now called the "Acceleration Aware Singapore" from now on. This is so that we don't run into being perceived as an airy-fairy sci-fi group, but substantiated by current technological developments.

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The topic this week is about "Accelerating Change" and the homework to do before the meeting is to read up on:

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1. Wikipedia "Accelerating Change"

In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is an increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. While many have suggested accelerating change, its popularity in modern times is closely associated with the ideas and writings of Raymond Kurzweil, especially in relation to his theories about technological singularity. Read more

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2. Ray Kurzell's TED Talk on "How technology's accelerating power will transform us".

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3. Ponder the question:

"How does accelerating change effect me in the next 5, 10 and 15 years?"

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Meanwhile, here are some interesting articles and videos pointed out by some of our members during our online Skype conference:

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1. Singularity University - Preparing Humanity for Accelerating Technological Change. 
For more, click here.

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The technological singularity is a theoretical future point of unprecedented technological progress—typically associated with advancements in computer hardware or the ability of machines to improve themselves using artificial intelligence. For more, click here

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2. Future Shock Level - A Shock Level measures the high-tech concepts you can contemplate without being impressed, frightened, blindly enthusiastic - without exhibiting future shock. 

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• Shock Level Zero or SL0, for example, is modern technology and the modern-day world, 
  
• SL1 is virtual reality or an ecommerce-based economy, 
  
• SL2 is interstellar travel, medical immortality or genetic engineering, 
  
• SL3 is nanotech or human-equivalent AI, and 
  
• SL4 is the Singularity. 
  

For more, click here

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3. The coming of the megacomputer - 

What we're seeing is the first stage of a rapid centralization of data-processing power - on a scale unimaginable before. At the same time, of course, the computing power at the edges, ie, in the devices that we all use, is also growing rapidly. An iPhone would have qualified as a supercomputer a few decades ago. But because the user devices draw much of their functionality (and data) from the Net, it's the centralization trend that's the key one in reshaping computing today. For more, click here

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4. Projector phones: Cool app or visual pollution?

Chip maker Texas Instruments (TI) has shrunk a video projector to the size of a raisin and it says the device is cheap enough to become the next must-have feature for cellphones. This means people could project their photos, videos and Powerpoint-style presentations on walls, tables or just about any other surface. Read more

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5. World's First Nanoradio Could Lead to Subcellular Remote-Control Interfaces

Less than two weeks after a team of scientists created a nanoscale radio component, scientists at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory have gone one better -- announcing the creation of the world's first complete nanoradio.

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The breakthrough nanoradio consists of a single carbon-nanotube molecule that serves simultaneously as all the essential components of a radio -- antenna, tunable band-pass filter, amplifier and demodulator...

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...The nanoradio is less than one micron long and only 10 nanometers wide -- or one ten-thousandth the width of a human hair -- making it the smallest radio ever created... Read more

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6. Zeitgeist - The Movie

Warning: This is a long 2 hour documentary.

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7. Zeitgeist - Addendum

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8. The Venus Project - The Venus Project presents a bold, new direction for humanity that entails nothing less than the total redesign of our culture. Read here

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All these and the week's meeting proper have not even started yet! :)

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Discussion:

We started by discussing about the movie "Zietgeist", particularly the part about the Federal Reserve and the printing of money without the backing of gold, and creating debt for the US Treasury. If money is based on gold, then Central Banks will be more restricted to printing money at their own will. Gold was used because it is very rare, though it  is  a precious metal that has very few industrial use, unlike platinum or silver.

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Still a monetary system based on gold can still be leveraged. They can also continue to practise 'fractional banking' (see the movie for details).

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has their own currency called the "Special Drawing Rights".

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Wikipedia:

Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are potential claims on the freely usable currencies of International Monetary Fund members. SDRs have the ISO 4217 currency code XDR.

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SDRs are defined in terms of a basket of major currencies used in international trade and finance. At present, the currencies in the basket are the euro, the pound sterling, the Japanese yen and the United States dollar.

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SDRs are used as a unit of account by the IMF and several other international organizations. A few countries peg their currencies against SDRs, and it is also used to denominate some private international financial instruments.  

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SDRs basically were created to replace gold in large international transactions. Being that under a strict (international) gold standard, the quantity of gold worldwide is relatively fixed, and the economies of all participating IMF members as an aggregate are growing, a perceived need arose to increase the supply of the basic unit or standard proportionately. Thus SDRs, or "paper gold", are credits that nations with balance of trade surpluses can 'draw' upon nations with balance of trade deficits. Read more

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Stefan suggested that we now move on to discuss about Aetheism and Agnosticism.

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What is 'aetheism'?

Aetheists do not believe there is a god. However, not believing is still a belief. They believe that there is no proof that there is a god and therefore it does not exist. It is difficult to prove what is god, if god itself is not defined.

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What is god?

If you claim a knowledge (of god) that you can't define, then you tend to move into the metaphysical plane. Those who argue that there is no evidence of god and therefore that it does not exist does not hold. Clearly, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Some think of god as something which they cannot imagine anything greater.

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Rejection of god is a rejection of a pattern of consciousness that has a higher intrinsic purpose and direction. God must have a purpose and meaning. Some of us finds it difficult to understand that there is such directions and meaning and therefore acknowledge themselves as agnostics.

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I think if there is a direction and purpose, it may be difficult for many to grasp and understand, since we tend to think of the world from our own view. Many people think that if there is a god, why did he allow all the catastrophies that befall mother Earth and its inhabitants. Why can't god fix these problems? However, if he fixes all those problems, then there won't be free-will. That wouldn't work either.

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I think we have to step back and look at the world from a broader perspective. Few people can step out of their own shell to look at it as an observer. For instance, if a tree falls onto my house, it is bad news to me, but a paradise for the termites.

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Also we are all in a unconscious evolutionary path. For instance, bees busy themselves because they want the honey and not because they have the wider purpose about the need to pollinate the flowers and sustain a global ecology. 

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So I guess there is a higher purpose, higher meaning and direction, just that we may not be able to see them all.

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By clearing our minds through meditation or otherwise, it will be possible to see the world in clearer light and understanding.

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[Interjection from another member]: I can't follow this argument because it is much dependent on individual experience...

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Stefan: Wait. We have listened to your argument from a 'scientific' and logical view, which is objective, but this is not reason to reject subjective views based on another's experience.

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[that 'member']: Ok, granted. Agree to that.

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Someone said that there are also different types of aetheists, namely the weak aetheists and the strong aetheists. There are some who say that they are aetheists because there is no proof that there is god, therefore they don't know if there is god. 

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That I think are confused people - neither aetheists or agnostics.

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It is difficult to determine if there is a god. Commonly, there is the rejection of the mono-theistic anthropomorphic god, as in the prevailing Christian practice. But it is something else rejecting the universal formless god force that is said to exist in every atom.

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It also depends on the religion. Buddhists claim to be aetheists as they don't believe in a god, but they speak a lot about Nature and the Universe. Are they supposed to be the same?

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Another participant says he is an aetheist because he rejects the many atrocities, calamities and wars that were conducted in the name of god. I corrected that that is a rejection of religion, not of necessarily of god.

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Stefan says that folklore, folk religion and practices are converging (or may be they have common intrinsic values) to compassion. I think this is because Mother Earth is vibrating more and more from the Heart Centre, as we enter a new era.

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There are different ways of perceiving this change and ultimately all truthful perception leads to the same.

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What the technological changes that help us come together to this unity and compassion?

The Internet is one.

I think if productive nanotechnology assemblers is another as it will create abundance, setting the human spirit free from drudgery and tedium.

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Some of the recent technological achievements like the nanoradio is staggering. It is so small and can be built into a helmet to amplify and transfer our thoughts. 

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Do we want that?

That effectively makes everyone a telepathic agent. Do we want everyone to know every single bit of our thoughts? If not, then likely there will be 'thought filters' added to such a telepathic helmet.

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Some people may not want even their wives to know every of their thoughts. I suspect not 'some' but 'many'! :) But conversely, there are some couples who open all their thoughts to each other. Such couples often develop a psychic ability to read their partner's thoughts. So, without technology telepathy already exists, and our willingness to share our thoughts are really independent from the availability of telepathic technological aids.

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Will these technologies be imposed onto societies?

I think acceptance will come gradually with each new generation who grew up with these technologies. The young learn more easily and may be more open to have their entire thoughts broadcasted to everyone. They may not care about such privacy! Something which we may find hard to fanthom at present. Similarly, just say five years ago, many people would not put their photographs online, but today, it is common practice. Some even put their diaries online - we call them 'blogs'. :)

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Will there be more conflicts or harmony as a result of all the new (and some intrusive) technologies? Will there be a dependency on them? Will there be more twisted minds?

I think twisted minds are the way they are because of fear. Question is will these technologies create more fear. Will people become more fearful if there are more abundance, as produced by the nanotechnology assemblers? Chances are that there will be less fear, and perhaps more open-ness among the new generations.

[End]

The Futurists' meeting is held every Wednesday 7.30pm-9.30pm at the Global Sound Cafe, along South Bridge Road, in Singapore. Anyone welcome. There are no membership fees or anything to pay. You don't even have to agree with anyone, but just the need to participate and be open.

Technology 9 - Breaking up is hard to do...

I am an information security consultant. We outwit hackers for our customers. Before we get to do so, we submit proposals to explain how we can help them.

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One way of helping our customers is to break their information systems non-destructively. However, it is hard to say how we do so. Commonly quoted 'methodologies' are too general to be informative and useful.

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Yet, common business practice dictates that we submit a 'methodology' for the customer's perusal before we attempt to break their systems up. This goes against the grain that building something is systematic, but breaking something is hardly so. It depends on what turns up and what patterns we recognise at the very moment. It is mostly unsystematic! So, in effect, a structured methodology is just to get us pass the 'front door'.

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But this is understandable why the customers do not think the same way as we do, as the same system of thoughts that have created the security loopholes and vulnerabilities tend to be a different type of mind that identifies vulnerabilities.

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Technology 8 - The Oldies

The other day, as I was clearing my room, one of the things I had to throw away was the old PC. The old machine (bought in 1999) is still running, but without a USB port, a big enough memory, a fast enough modem and and low flicker flat screen, it just doesn't make much sense to keep these days. So, it is going to the scrap heap.

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As I was salvaging some old data from the PC, I came across many quaint old stuff that I hoarded back those days. I had Microsoft Encarta, World Atlas, Chess Games...etc. Back then, they cost a lot of money to buy. Now, they are all superseded by faster, better, more user-friendly services, and most of all - Free!

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And it was not only software that were local, but I also hoarded articles and emails, because I didn't think that I can easily access them from the Internet. It was a sense of insecurity akin to the common and inherent fear that I cannot tap into the Akashic Records or the universe, to be informed or inspired, and therefore cannot be free from attachments. If we trust, then the fear becomes no more.

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Now Wikipedia, Google Earth and many online games have replaced the old stuff. Even those exclusive offline business directory memberships are now superseded by business and social networking sites, instant messenging and video conferencing.
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Technology has rapidly changed our way of doing business and our social life. Personally, I have made many valuable business contacts online. People I would otherwise have little chance of meeting in person, as they reside in the other corner of the world.

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The old "Request for Information" from big companies to suppliers, is now but replaced by searches on Google or Youtube. Most good technologies are now better explained on video in Youtube, than texts and brochures.

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Some technology suppliers go a step further to allow potential clients to get a ballpark quotation of what they want, by answering a few simple questions. Thus, simplifying the RFP (Request for Proposal) that follows. Perhaps one day this part will also be superseded by online auctions, which is already happening for more standardised commodities and services. These e-auctions are efficiently executed, self documenting and are paperless - saving some trees.

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Consultancies are also affected, as many people now choose to tap the collective brains of specialist forums to get quick answers - what was formerly obtainable only from paid consultants. More and more, services are offered free online. To earn the buck now, more value has to be added. Perhaps one day, these freebies will also be offered in the offline world, working towards what Bucky envisioned in World Game and also expressed in Alvin Toffler's Revolutionary Wealth. This is more reasonable than what many people think, since technology has made many things cheaper, not more expensive. Inflation is a consipiracy.

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Even age old vices, like gambling and pornography have moved online, hosting their servers in more laxed jurisdictions, to escape tax and prohibitive laws. All this without the need to invest billions in an integrated resort (IR) too! Makes me wonder if the IR under construction in Singapore is a has-been business model, better run online. Likewise, porn magazines are almost wiped off the shelves these days. Well, at least the trees are safe! *laughs* (Note: That is not to say that I agree with these vices, especially gambling, which one way or another, necessitates that for one to win many have to lose. )

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Even the power and authority of politics and governments are not spared the impact of technologies. The Malaysian ruling party was almost knocked out by the many political blogs and satire that sprung up during their elections. The Singapore government will also wake up to a rude shock come the next election, when they realise they have underestimated the power of online blogs and citizen podcasts. Up till now, the media is largely government controlled and censored. It will become more and more difficult for dictators to survive in the new world.

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In India, bureaucratic corruption is also cut down by the advent of e-government, and also cutting queues, time and labour.

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Fathers will realise that to communicate and develop a closer relationship with their sons, it will be easier to understand the online games that their sons are playing. It may be hard for many fathers, but their sons are more likely than not have their minds living in Cyberspace. Some more chronic cases will actually have their second lives in Secondlife, and the father induldged with second wives in second lives. :)

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Then, as I lugged the bulky screen and PC into the truck, I still have a little remorse for retiring the faithful machine, while it is still in working order, to the scrap heap. It feels like I am administering euthanasia. Moreover, I was also not sure how environmentally responsible the scrap yard operator is. Admittedly, after all these years of the PC having served me well, I do sense a bit of attachment and loss. :(
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