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Friday, March 06, 2009

The Futurists 4 - Nanotechnology


This week's discussion is about nanotechnology. It is a topic I barely know anything about. So attending this session is just an educational trip for me. Don't despair if you feel you too have scant knowledge of the topic.
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Here are some links which you may like to read first:
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Nanotechnology, which is sometimes shortened to "Nanotech", refers to a field whose theme is the control of matter on an atomic and molecularscale. Generally nanotechnology deals with structures of the size 100 nanometers or smaller, and involves developing materials or devices within that size.

Nanotechnology is extremely diverse, ranging from novel extensions of conventional device physics, to completely new approaches based uponmolecular self-assembly, to developing new materials with dimensions on the nanoscale, even to speculation on whether we can directly control matter on the atomic scale... more
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For those of you who are at the expert level, you may like to read this post in the Next Big Future. 
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While waiting for everyone to arrive, Stefan shared with us about this book that he is reading, "Homo Necans". 
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Homo Necans: the Anthropology of Ancient Greek Sacrificial Ritual and Myth is a book on ancient Greek religion and mythology by Walter Burkert, which won the Weaver Award for Scholarly Literature, awarded by the Ingersoll Foundation, in 1992.[1] The book's core thesis is that when paleolithic man became a hunter, in spite of the generally omnivorous orientation of the great apes, lack of a predator instinct was made up for by turning patterns of intra-species aggression against the prey. Read more
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A begineer's book to read on nanotechnology, is "Engines of Creation" by K Eric Drexler. 
Drexler wrote about a world where the entire Library of Congress fit a chip the size of a sugar cube and "universal assemblers" (tiny machines that build atom by atom) will be used for everything from medicinal robots that help clear the capillaries to environmental scrubbers that clear pollutants from the air.
For more about the book on Wikipedia, click here
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For the book itself, click here.  
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Stefan started the discussion by saying that he chose the topic for this week because it is one of the three great foundations of the new future, namely: Transhumanism, Artificial Intelligence and Nanotechnology. He then asked if anyone in the group is an expert on productive nanotechnology assemblers, which got us laughing as it is difficult to be an expert on something that is not in production yet. :)
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Productive nanotechnology assemblers are about precise manufacturing that is self-repairing and self-replicating, at a very low cost. It is likened to replicating the contents in a DVD. With goods produced so cheaply, we may not need to work anymore - or at least the kind of work that we know of today.
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There is a book called, "The Diamond Age", which depicts the social remifications of nanotechnology. Here is something about the book on Wikipedia:
The Diamond Age or, A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer is a postcyberpunk novel by Neal Stephenson. It is a bildungsroman focused on a young girl named Nell, and set in a world in which nanotechnology affects all aspects of life. Some main motifs include: education, social class, ethnicity, and the nature of artificial intelligence. Read more.
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We then proceeded to discuss about the ramifications to society that the advent of nanotechnology may have. It will lead to a post-scarcity society, when we have a productive universal assembler. Most likely the owner of the technology will license it out to others to reproduce his assembler.
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There will then be no scarcity, unless people then look at handmade products or slightly imperfect products for novelty reasons.
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It will be an uncanny situation as then everyone will be very wealthy and that may not be liked by the rich people now, as generally, people likes to be relatively richer than others, than to have everyone equally rich - even if the absolute income of everyone can be high.
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Will there be a nanotechnology war in that, there will be dis-assemblers made to disassemble the assemblers?  Fearful governments may do that to disassemble assemblers that are a threat to their hold on power. This in turn, may give rise to counter dis-assemblers, to dis-assemble the dis-assemblers.
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The software industry could be a good model to follow, in that they have the software, then malware (viruses...etc), then anti-viruses, then there are malware that attacks anti-viruses...etc.
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Actually so far we have been looking at the social ramifications from a Western viewpoint. That is, that all problems come about due to material scarcity. 
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How about corporate control of nanotechnology?
Will there come a time when only one such company will control the entire world, just like how Microsoft dominate personal computers?
Will the first one to achieve a productive nanotechnology assembler control to the world?
Or will it be unlikely that the first one will be so advanced to be able to do so?
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Will this lead to immortality where we can have cellular replacement, or have our brains duplicated?
If so, which one will be the real me? The original me or the newly duplicated me? Is this legally the same person? It'll be likely that after the duplication the two (original and duplicate) persons will start to diverge in personality as they will start to have new experiences and learning processes.
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Perhaps the first productive assemblers will be one hardwired to produce specific objects and not a universal assembler.
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Will this assembler be developed from the military or the consumer market?
Military applications (products) tend to serve tactical purposes whilst the consumer market producers tend to be more strategic in their development.
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How about the Internet?
It was developed by the military and nobody expected that it can be so widespread and used to enable so many applications.
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Therefore, the 'joker in the pack' would be the human factor, or the human nature. What applications and social ramifications nanotechnology will have is likely to be lead by our innate human nature - to create, destroy, dominate, innovate...etc. There can be surprises on the way.
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Stefan then asked everyone how long we think we will get a productive nanotechnology assembler. I have no clue. Someone said 50 to 75 years. Stefan reckons we are only 15 years away, based on the developments that are already on the way - for that, you have to start doing some serious research and reading. For me, I am lost!  :)
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done but...still some typos...



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